Will The Iran War Crash The Markets? | Michael Lebowitz

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Stock prices have been stuck in a trading range for five months now.

And they've weakened since the outbreak of war in Iran.

Could they be on the verge of a larger correction?

While unknowable for certain, portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz and his team at RIA are starting to decrease their equity exposure.

He and I discuss why, as well as the recent disappointing payroll data, rising private credit fears, the strengthening US dollar and falling bond prices, as well as his firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

#jobsreport #iranwar #privatecredit

0:00 Outbreak of War with Iran
0:59 Oil Price Spike and Supply Disruptions
1:25 Trump's Statement on Iran Negotiations
1:43 Stock Market Trading Range Analysis
2:19 Technical Breakdown Risks
2:37 Portfolio Management Status
5:20 Demonstrating Diversification Benefits
7:32 Experience in Market Crises
8:57 Emotional Discipline for Investors
9:37 Geopolitical Events Impact on Markets
11:25 Oil's Limited Correlation to CPI
13:18 Fed's Focus on Core Inflation
14:07 Historical Fed Actions Amid Oil Spikes
15:22 Oil Price Chart Analysis
15:47 XLE Sector Response to Oil Jump
18:21 Energy Stocks Overvaluation Explanation
20:29 Markets Pricing in Known Events
22:14 Advice on Trading Current Market
25:27 Setting Investment Rules and Triggers
26:36 S&P 500 Technical Analysis
27:28 Bond Yields and Channel Trading
29:03 Bond Market Reaction to Employment Data
32:52 Trueflation and Upcoming CPI Report
34:04 Bond Yield Outlook Amid Inflation
35:27 Deficit Concerns Over Inflation in Bonds
36:41 Private Credit Issues and Headlines
38:00 Credit Spreads as Leading Indicators
40:43 Monitoring Private Credit Stress
43:13 Private Credit Risks Compared to Subprime
45:10 Dollar Strength and Recent Rally
46:27 Dollar Impact on Global Economy
47:29 Dollar Correlation with Gold and Silver
49:24 Dollar Breakout Risks
50:34 Stock Market Topping Curvature
53:02 Market Volatility Analysis
54:43 Moving Averages as Support Levels
56:04 Lines in the Sand for Exposure Reduction
58:01 Sector Rotations and Excess Performance
1:00:49 Year-to-Date Growth vs Value Performance
1:02:38 Value vs Growth Valuation Heat Map
1:05:12 Forward PE Ratios Comparison
1:06:12 PEG Ratios for Growth Stocks
1:08:45 Rotation from Value to Expensive Stocks
1:10:26 Signs of Shift Back to Growth
1:12:45 Market Rally Dependence on Large Caps
1:15:22 Payroll Data Shocker Analysis
1:16:56 ADP Data Reliability Over BLS
1:19:20 Retail Sales Decline Concerns
1:19:42 K-Shaped Economy and Spending Power
1:21:01 Wealth Effect and Stock Market Prediction
1:23:33 Social Impacts and Election Affordability
1:24:28 Recent Portfolio Trades to Growth
1:26:31 Entry Positions in Software Stocks
1:27:42 Profit Taking in Value Sectors
1:28:30 Rant on Helping the Helpers
1:32:03 Karmic Benefits of Community Support
1:32:40 Closing Advice on Rules in Volatile Times
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