With global energy markets in turmoil and Scottish voters facing spiralling bills, SNP leader John Swinney says the arguments around North Sea drilling have “changed” and he is now open to new oil and gas exploration off Scotland’s coast.
It is a remarkable turnaround for a party that spent the last five years making the opposite case.
“The arguments I think that have changed in recent weeks have been about the reliability and the security of energy supply, which brings in further considerations that have to be taken into account,” Swinney told ITV News.
He wants energy policy devolved from Westminster to Holyrood after the election, and insists any new project would still face a “climate compatibility test” before winning SNP backing. But he now concedes it may be better for the environment, as well as for energy security, to produce oil and gas in the North Sea rather than rely on imports shipped from overseas.
The spiralling cost of energy bills, while Scotland sits above some of the largest untapped reserves in Europe, has also played a part in his political recalculation.
But his shift is all the more striking given how strongly the SNP felt about this just a few years ago.
Under Nicola Sturgeon, the party grew increasingly hostile to the oil and gas industry. When the UK government approved the Cambo oil field, Sturgeon urged Boris Johnson to reconsider. When Rosebank was approved in September 2023, she described it as the “greatest act of environmental vandalism” of her lifetime.
Her successor, Humza Yousaf, went further still, calling supporters of new North Sea oil and gas production “climate deniers”.
At a climate conference in New York, he also declared his ambition for Scotland to stop being the “oil and gas capital” of Europe and become instead its “net zero capital”.
The SNP formally adopted a ‘presumption against’ policy when it came to new oil and gas development as part of its draft energy strategy.
But the change of heart from the SNP now creates a new problem: the Scottish Greens are furious about it, and Swinney may be relying on their support if he is to become First Minister again.
“If they want the support of the Greens, clearly they need to be a government to tackling the climate emergency,” says Scottish Greens co-leader, Ross Greer.
He adds: “This isn’t Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP anymore.”
The SNP is not alone in repositioning, though. Across the political spectrum, the case for new North Sea development is gaining ground.
The Scottish Liberal Democrats went from being ardent opponents to now saying they could see merit in developing new fields at Rosebank and Jackdaw because it may be the "least bad" environmental option while the UK still needs oil and gas.
The Scottish Conservatives have embraced Donald Trump’s “drill baby drill” stance, pointing to the jobs new fields would create.
Reform argue the UK’s emissions are too small globally to justify holding back while relying on imports.
Even Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has broken from his own party, urging Energy Secretary Ed Miliband to approve new licences.
The decision on North Sea licensing remains reserved to Westminster, meaning Holyrood cannot act unilaterally regardless of who wins in Scotland. But the direction of political travel could not be clearer in Scotland.
The two fields at the centre of this debate are Rosebank, west of Shetland, and Jackdaw, east of Aberdeen.
Rosebank is the largest untapped oilfield in Britain, estimated to hold around 300 million barrels of recoverable reserves over a lifespan of roughly 25 years.
Oil is sold on international markets, and so new oil fields in Britain are unlikely to have any impact on household bills, but the UK can generate significant revenue from production.
Gas is different: it is not traded internationally and can be kept within the UK. If Jackdaw is approved, the gas from this field could be pumped to the mainland and heating British homes by this winter.
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